Goldman Sachs believes it’s coming home (probably)

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imageSport6 hours ago (Jul 05, 2021 13:45)

© Reuters.

By Samuel Indyk – In Goldman Sachs’ latest economic research on the European Championships, their model predicts England will lift the trophy at Wembley Stadium on Sunday.

“It’s (probably) coming home,” said Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analyst Christian Schnittker.

“With Belgium out of the competition now, our model sees England as the favourite to win the Euros after their 4-0 win against Ukraine.”

The update comes after Italy knocked out Belgium on Friday evening to set up a semi-final against Spain on Tuesday.

The Goldman Sachs model predicts a narrow victory for Spain against the Azzurri.

England will face Denmark on Wednesday for the chance to meet one of the other titans of European football in the final. The model predicts England will edge Denmark.

Goldman Sachs model

This is not the first time Goldman Sachs have produced a model to predict the winner of a major football tournament, nor the first note on the European Championships.

In their first update ahead of the tournament, Goldman Sachs picked Belgium as their likely winners but also warned of the volatile nature of football.

The model is based on a number of variables, including: how strong the squad is, the number of goals scored and conceded in recent games, home advantage, and a “tournament effect”.

England now have home advantage with the final three games to be played at Wembley Stadium.

Sectors to watch

Pubs and bars will be hoping England can at least get to the final, providing much needed revenue for a sector severely impacted by the pandemic. A number of UK-listed pub names are trading higher today ahead of a speech by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is expected to say the UK is on track to ease Covid restrictions on July 19th.

Pub names listed in the UK include J D Wetherspoon (LON:JDW), Mitchells & Butlers (LON:MAB) and Marston’s (LON:MARS).  

And while Raheem Sterling performs on the pitch for England, the Pound Sterling is struggling for traction. When the tournament kicked off on June 11th, GBP/USD was trading near 1.4200. At pixel time, the pair is trading at 1.3850, down around 2% in the last month. 

Goldman Sachs believes it’s coming home (probably)

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